Autumn, Fall Or Rise? Nova News Editorial August 2015

Predicting the rise or fall in property prices is an almost impossible task, however, there are many “experts” and economists who are only too willing to pitch in with their opinion and ultimately this becomes either tomorrows fish and chip paper or historic information on the internet which we can look back on when writing articles like this.

Some market analysts are looking towards increased growth this year and another was anticipating a 30% fall over the next 4 years. We are presently in a period of reduction in the rate of annual increase; this of course does not mean prices are falling, just rising less quickly. Is this a precursor to a fall in prices?

The autumn is considered to be a time of year in which the trend is set for the coming months. Early in the year many potential buyers were holding back because of the General Election yet mortgage lending was apparently up in May, possibly due to previously agreed sales. Once the election passed there was an increase in the number of homes coming onto the market as some optimism returned to the market. An increased availability of stock would generally lead to a reduction in the rate of increase in prices, purely down to the economic supply and demand theory. This and the observation by the Governor of the Bank of England, Mark Carney, that there is an anticipation of a rise in interest rates around the turn of the year, may lead to a few jitters in the market place.

More often than not August is a period of relative quiet in respect of the number of houses coming on the market, therefore as the Autumn approaches the market returns to the norm as kids go back to school and the days shorten. This is when we will start to get some kind of indication as to how the market will go, up or down, Building Societies and Banks will be competing for your business with a plethora of differing mortgage offers at higher rates than we currently experience, do you go for fixed rate or variable? We have been very fortunate over recent years to have the benefit of stable interest rates at a low level. How will things pan out?

Newport and the surrounding area however remains a strong locality for buyers and sellers. In particular the established 4 bedroom detached homes in town are presently selling well as they look to be good value in terms of price, size and storage space compared to the new build homes.

Andrew Mason Independent Valuer 07507 928008